What to watch for this election cycle: a brief guide for Rochester area voters
Never in our lifetimes has there been so much anticipation and unease about an upcoming general election. And for good reason: the race for the White House is shaping up to be the most divisive in modern American history. The back-and-forth between the two candidates will consume our television screens, our conversations with friends and family, and likely cause tension in our everyday life.
Despite all the attention — not to mention the money and vitriol — directed toward the presidential election, it is likely most of us already know who we plan to vote for. In fact, according to the Pew Research Center, just 5 percent of voters who support either President Trump or former Vice President Biden say there is a chance they will change their mind before November.
When it comes to local elections, however, the state of things could not be more different. Ahead of the recent Rochester City Council primaries, the vast majority of people I spoke with, or fielded questions from, expressed some uncertainty about who they planned to vote for. This is anecdotal of course, but reflects a few key differences between these local races and the race for the presidency. First, the candidates have less name recognition. There is also less coverage of the races. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, most of the local races — including for county board, city council and school board — do not encourage candidates to affiliate themselves with a political party. This last point means voters generally begin their research into local candidates with an open mind.
As a result, from my perspective, these local elections represent the best of democracy. Candidates have the opportunity to take on myriad positions without worrying whether they align with any organized political group.
But while there are advantages, the challenge of these races is that the burden is on voters to be more intentional about finding out where the candidates stand. Without a party letter next to a name, how do we know their views on policing, climate change, or the use of public funds to support economic development? We have to ask, and we have to give them a chance to provide a nuanced answer, one that may not fit neatly into a partisan box. On this site, we aim to be facilitators of these discussions by holding town halls and encouraging voters to take part in the debates. Looking ahead, as we did prior to the primaries, we will be holding virtual forums ahead of the general election featuring all local candidates who agree to participate. (Watch the site for announcements.)
In the meantime, though, I want to offer a sneak peek of some of the storylines we will be following as we head into the heat of election season. It is my hope this encourages you to begin thinking about the races and what subjects you want us to address in our campaign coverage. Because with so much uncertainty at the top, we know the most accessible way to participate in our democracy is by hearing from those candidates who live in our community. If elected, it’s them who we can most easily hold accountable.
Rochester City Council
With only one incumbent on the ballot this year, we can say with certainty that the Rochester City Council will look much different come 2021.
In the race for the city’s at-large council seat, Rochester Area Chamber of Commerce President Kathleen Harrington is going up against North Sky Health Consulting President Brooke Carlson after the two came out ahead in the recent primary. (Incumbent Randy Staver is retiring at the end of the year.) While Harrington finished first in the primary with 42 percent of the vote, compared to Carlson’s 35 percent, Harrington still faces a tough road ahead to securing the council presidency. Why? Because of the results of a third primary candidate, Vangie Castro. Castro ran as a progressive, a contrast to Harrington’s mostly centrist background, and it is likely that many, if not most, Castro voters (representing 23 percent of the primary turnout) will transfer their political allegiances to Carlson this November. That said, all three candidates showed a high level of competency during the primary campaign, and the race between Harrington and Carlson is still too competitive for definitive analysis.
While ward races are generally neighborhood affairs, there is one race this year that is likely to garner the attention of residents across Rochester. That duel will take place in Ward 2, where incumbent Michael Wojcik is facing a challenge from Mark Bransford. Not only is Wojcik the most controversial figure in Rochester politics, but the two men also have a bitter personal past that includes a series of quarrels that played out in public. The two finished close in the primary, with Wojcik and Bransford earning 43 and 38 percent of votes, respectively. If Bransford is to oust Wojcik, however, it appears he may have to be more than be simply “anti-Wojcik.” In 2016, Wojcik came out ahead against challenger Scott Hoss, who presented himself as the candidate of civility in contrast to Wojcik’s brazen behavior.
In the remaining two council races, the candidates still have work to solidify their platforms ahead of the general election. In Ward 4, small business owner Katrina Pulham is looking to overcome a 27-point primary gap against fellow small business owner Kelly Rae Kirkpatrick. And in Ward 6, special education paraprofessional Molly Dennis will face Craig Ugland, a real estate agent whose campaign evolved out of his opposition to the Elton Hills Drive road diet plan. Dennis won the six-way primary with 33 percent of the vote. Ugland finished second with 24 percent.
View this map to find out what ward you reside in.
Olmsted County Board
The big question going into the elections for the Olmsted County Board of Commissioners is whether a younger, more diverse group of challengers can make a dent in their bids to unseat familiar incumbents.
In District 1, commercial real estate agent Robert “Bucky” Beeman faces an uphill battle in his challenge to Commissioner Stephanie Podulke, who ran unopposed in 2016. Four years prior, she defeated her challenger by a 2-1 margin to take control of the same seat that had been held for 24 years by her late husband Mike Podulke. Beeman, however, is a formidable challenger with strong name recognition resulting from his work in the small business community.
Over in District 5, longtime Commissioner Jim Bier is heading into the general with a sizable advantage over challenger Regina Mustafa. The two came out ahead in a three-way primary on August 11, with Bier collecting 46 percent of the vote compared to Mustafa’s 29 percent. Bier ran unopposed in the last cycle, and before that easily won his district with 75 percent of the vote in 2012 and 61 percent in 2008. The one X factor in this race will be whether Mustafa, a substance abuse treatment professional, who ran unsuccessfully for mayor in 2018, can win over voters who supported the third candidate in this month’s primary, Brian Morgan. Morgan has endorsed Mustafa’s bid for county commissioner.
In District 7, incumbent Commissioner Mark Thein is looking to hold off a challenge from Wale Elegbede, who is employed as director of Strategy Management Services at Mayo Clinic. Thein, a small business owner and football coach, first won the seat in 2016 by ousting former Commissioner Louis Ohly by a 20-point margin. Both candidates have pledged to run positive campaigns, with Thein even intervening on social media to call out a negative, racially-charged statement about Elegbede’s campaign. Elegbede serves as vice president of the local chapter of NAACP and has a forthcoming TED Talk on society’s collective role in solving discrimination.
Finally, in District 3, Commissioner Gregg Wright is running unopposed.
View this map if you are unsure which district you live in.
Rochester School Board
There are few subjects more important to voters this cycle than the state of our public education system. With debate swirling about whether and how to reopen schools, candidates should be prepared to face difficult questions about what the district can do to ensure students are receiving an adequate education in the midst of a pandemic.
The timing of the elections, too, will play a significant role in where the discussion ends up. Rochester Public Schools has outlined an initial plan for the first two months of the school year with most elementary schoolers starting with a hybrid model, while most middle and high school students will continue with the distance learning model. But by mid-October, only a few weeks ahead of Election Day, the conversation about what to do next is going to heat up. Gov. Tim Walz has given district’s flexibility to adjust their plans along the way, though it is impossible to say where the community will be a couple of months from now in its fight against the coronavirus.
Further, it is unclear what kind of impact that pressure from parents — a large chunk of potential voters — will play in the board’s decision-making. A recent survey from Rochester Public Schools found that a majority of parents support their child going back to school in some capacity, whether all in-person or through a hybrid model.
The candidates for Rochester School Board are:
Position 1: Don Barlow (I) vs. Justin Cook
Position 3: Deborah Seelinger (I) vs. Karen MacLaughlin
Position 7: Mark Schleusner (I) vs. Dr. Jess Garcia
Minnesota Legislature
Out of the four categories included in this article, this is the only one in which the major candidates running for office do typically seek an endorsement from one of the two major parties: the GOP or DFL. (So, in large part, you can ignore the short essay above related to nonpartisanship.)
Right now in St. Paul, the Legislature is the only one of its kind in the U.S. with split government — with Republicans controlling the state Senate and DFLers (the state affiliate of the Democratic party) compromising the majority in the state House. That means you can expect the six Rochester area races for state government to be, in part, a referendum on the actions taken by Gov. Tim Walz in response to the pandemic, the accompanying economic recovery, and his administration’s response to the protests and riots that became a catalyst for a nationwide debate over race and policing.
In the campaign for the two state Senate positions, both Republican incumbents head into the general election with much stronger name recognition compared to their Democratic challengers. In District 25, longtime State Sen. Dave Senjem is facing off against Sara Flick, a self-described ‘working mom with more than a decade of experience in economic development and startup.’ In District 26, State Sen. Carla Nelson is trying to fend off Dr. Aleta Borrud, a retired geriatrician who previously worked at Mayo Clinic.
Both Senjem and Nelson won by sizable margins in 2016 (26 and 12 percentage points, respectively). Of course, the one notable difference between now and then is that the Republican Party has become definitively the party of Donald Trump. And with polls showing Trump losing ground among suburban voters, it will be interesting to watch whether those same trends trickle down to statewide races. Both Nelson and Senjem have presented themselves as moderates (though Nelson shifted further toward the right in her brief congressional bid in 2018), so the question is: if Trump’s prospects weaken ahead of the general election, do they distance themselves from the top of the ticket — and if so, by how much?
As for the state House races, Republican Duane Quam (District 25A) is attempting to fend off a challenge from Democrat Kim Hicks. Quam represents a more conservative area north of Rochester, and has twice won the seat by more than 20 points. However, in 2018, he saw that margin shrink to just seven points. In District 25B, two candidates — Republican Kenneth Bush and Democrat Liz Boldon — are vying to replace a seat being vacated by retiring State Rep. Duane Sauke. Sauke, a Democrat, defeated Bush by 20 points in 2018; though, just two years prior, he narrowly defeated his Republican challenger by just under four points. In District 26A, Democratic State Rep. Tina Liebling is facing a challenge from Republican Gary Melin. Liebling won her seat by nearly 30 points in 2018.
Finally, perhaps the most intriguing local state House race will come in District 26B, which is now held by Republican State Rep. Nels Pierson. After winning by 20 points in both 2014 and 2016, the gap closed in 2018 to eight points, still a comfortable margin. This time around, however, Pierson is facing what will likely be his greatest political challenge. Randy Brock, the former television meteorologist who became a local household name working at KTTC, is running as a Democrat in an attempt to unseat Pierson. Chalk this one up to I do not have a clue how this race will turn out.
Not sure which district you live in? View the maps for state Senate and House.
Sean Baker is a Rochester journalist and the founder of Med City Beat.
