Even as vaccinations pick up, top Mayo official cautions: 'we’re not there yet' on return to normal

While vaccination rates in Olmsted County continue to outpace state and national levels, Covid-19 cases in our area have followed the statewide trend slightly upward in recent days — ending a three-month streak of constant decline, and leading a top Mayo Clinic official to call for caution through the spring months.

Dr. Melanie Swift, co-chair of Mayo Clinic’s Covid-19 Vaccine Allocation and Distribution Work Group, says the gradual increase in cases could partially be attributed to “the natural impulse of people” to let their guard down, as cases declined and weather improved in recent weeks. 

“We are seeing, with spring break and the expansion of indoor dining, people are starting to gather more and possibly be a little lenient with those post-vaccination guidelines,” Swift said during a Thursday press conference.

She added that the loosening of government restrictions — like what Gov. Tim Walz announced last week — could further exacerbate a bump in cases, although numbers still remain far below the case spike seen through late fall and winter.

“When these restrictions get loosened, we see a bump in cases,” said Swift. “That’s been the story over and over again. How much vaccine changes that is dependent on what percent of the population is vaccinated — and we’re not there yet, folks. We’re not at a level where we feel we have herd immunity and can feel comfortable with relaxing restrictions.”

Olmsted County Public Health reported 130 new cases this past week after identifying 106 the week before — representing the first week-to-week increase since December. Percent-positive rates also went up slightly, from four to six percent.

This increase locally, health officials say, does not appear to be the result of the arrival of any new virus variants; none have yet been identified in Olmsted County — although roughly 250 cases of the UK variant (B.1.1.7) have been identified so far across the state.

Vaccine Supply

While local health leaders continue to monitor the caseload, they say the supply of vaccine has become more consistent and predictable in recent weeks — helping Olmsted County’s vaccination numbers maintain an encouraging pace.

“It’s a more regular allocation of vaccine than a month ago, for sure,” said Swift.

Over 25 percent of Olmsted County’s population is now fully vaccinated, a number that is double the national rate. As of Tuesday, more than 36 percent of Olmsted residents had received at least one dose.

Amy Evans, vaccine distribution leader for Olmsted County Public Health, says the department is wrapping up vaccinations of area food processing workers, and expects to be finished before the end of next week.

Meanwhile, health care providers continue to focus on high-risk populations in the second priority tier of Phase 1B, with some vaccinations already reaching people in the third tier. (Health care providers are vaccinating more people with medical-based eligibility, while the state and county focus on those with employment-based eligibility.)

Once Public Health reaches its next tier, Evans added, many more job titles will become eligible through state and local programs — and in the case of a field like agriculture, Even said it’s possible some eligible people will likely “slip through the cracks” of Public Health’s outreach campaigns.

“It’s becoming more complicated to identify people,” said Evans. “For agriculture, there’s a lot of independent farmers in this community — and it’s not as simple as reaching out to an employer, who can then notify hundreds of people.”

As eligibility becomes more widespread, Evans said it would be important for vaccine-eligible residents to take initiative and look for their own appointments — through health providers or pharmacies. 

“Get the vaccine wherever you can,” said Evans. “That's what we want. Don’t wait for an organization to contact you when you can get it somewhere else.”

New messaging program

Dr. Swift says a strategic partnership between Mayo Clinic, Olmsted Medical Center, and Olmsted County Public Health would launch in the coming weeks, designed to quell some public fear and hesitancy over vaccines before eligibility opens up to the general public.

The “Our Comeback Story” program, as it will be called, will focus on providing up-to-date messaging on the various Covid-19 vaccines in the market, and encouraging residents to sign up whenever possible. 

“Our best hope to come back together as family, friends, and a community is this vaccine,” said Swift. “We encourage people to learn more about the vaccine and get it when they can. We want our community to be a community of immunity.”

Isaac Jahns is a Rochester native and a 2019 graduate of the Missouri School of Journalism. He reports on politics, business and music for Med City Beat.