Covid cases spike in Olmsted County; public health director warns of 'difficult' weeks ahead

The latest Covid-19 report from Olmsted County reveals a situation that local public health officials have feared: significant increases in cases and rolling averages, setting new highs and raising worries over the strain on the health care system in the weeks to come.

Olmsted County Public Health reports 460 new cases of the virus over the past week, more than double the previous record weekly total. Seven-day rolling averages, hovering between 20 and 30 just two weeks ago, have now risen to roughly 65. The five worst single-day case totals have occurred in the past week, with a new record of 108 new cases reported yesterday. Percent positive rates, once hovering below four percent, have ballooned to 10.2 percent.

Public Health Director Graham Briggs said in a video released Tuesday that the next two weeks were more or less “predetermined,” meaning that people who will fall ill with the virus over the next fortnight have already been exposed. The end of 2020, he added, may mark the darkest point in the pandemic for the Rochester area.

“There’s a fair amount of concern in the health department that we may have the most difficult four to six weeks of the entire pandemic immediately ahead of us,” said Briggs. “We will need to navigate through it, which could be very difficult for the community, I think.”

Olmsted County’s trends are in line with a concerning and swift surge in cases across Minnesota, which has quickly worsened over the past two weeks. Minnesota has set records for single-day case totals three days in a row, with at least two weeks of growth expected. The state’s total ICU beds are at 92 percent capacity, 

To avoid a worst-case scenario, Briggs said it would be imperative for residents to consider changes in their behavior, noting that the effects wouldn’t be seen until at least mid-November.

“Really think seriously before going out into any sort of gathering with people, any sort of group of people coming together or an indoor setting,” said Briggs. “If there’s a bunch of people in there, there’s a good chance the virus is in there with you.”

Olmsted County releases Covid-19 data every day, plus a more extensive look at the numbers every Wednesday, on their digital dashboard.

Cover graphic via Olmsted County Public Health