Olmsted County Covid-19 update: rolling averages remain high, hospitalization rates stable

After the largest spike in Covid-19 cases in our area to date, the latest weekly Covid-19 report from Olmsted County Public Health shows a slight improvement in the situation — less cases, lower rolling averages, and hospitalizations remaining level week-to-week.

One hundred and sixty-five new cases were reported, down from the 206 reported last week. It is still the third-highest weekly total to date, behind last week and the 169 reported cases from the first week in July. Seven-day rolling averages now sit at roughly 26 cases — down from last week’s peak of 31 and roughly on par with the averages seen during the July spike.

The week’s results gave some encouragement to Public Health director Graham Briggs, who said in a video that Olmsted County’s numbers — while remaining higher than at any other point in the pandemic — were still relatively good, compared to the major outbreaks around the Upper Midwest. Percent-positive test rates have remained around five percent, and hospitalizations continue to hover under 15 cases — nowhere near straining the system.

“We’re seeing some warning signs, but we can also see some positive signs as well,” said Briggs. “We’re seeing a higher percentage of our tests come back positive, but that five-percent number is still very low compared to a state like Wisconsin, who has over 20 percent of their tests coming back positive right now.”

Briggs added that case counts were becoming more representative of the overall population in Olmsted County, slightly moving away from the large racial disparities (in addition to age breakdowns) seen in the spring and summer. 

“What this is telling us, I think, is that transmission is not focused in small, tight-knit communities the way it was in the beginning,” said Briggs. “We’re seeing more broad, widespread transmission in the community, and that tells us something is changing overall about the virus here.”

One major bit of encouraging news from Briggs’ video: with Rochester Public Schools now entering their second month of in-person classes for elementary schoolers, the director said Covid cases among students have remained largely isolated — resulting in few outbreaks in area schools. (One exception is Byron Primary School, which closed earlier this week due an uptick in cases.)

“We've sent a lot of kids back to school, and we’ve seen kids with Covid, but we haven’t seen sustained transmission in elementary school kids from child to child,” said Briggs. “That’s good news. That tells us that schools are working really hard to keep transmission from happening, and there could be some dynamic with younger kids too.”

The overall message to the community from Briggs remained the same this week as it was last week: wear a mask, avoid large gatherings, and get tested when applicable, and Olmsted County will make it to the other side of the pandemic in a matter of months.

“We’ve got some challenges ahead, but we see some signs that the community is working hard at this,” said Briggs.

Isaac Jahns is a Rochester native and a 2019 graduate of the Missouri School of Journalism. He reports on politics, business and music for Med City Beat.