Olmsted County Covid-19 cases drop to three-month low

The top officials at Olmsted County Public Health say they’re becoming more optimistic on the future of the community’s fight with Covid-19, after OCPH reported 72 new cases of the virus last week — the lowest total since the week of May 4 — and rolling averages inch closer to ‘containment’ status. 

Public Health director Graham Briggs said he was encouraged by the new numbers, which continue a six-week-long trend of improvement. Since the week of July 6, when 169 cases were reported in a seven-day period, new weekly case counts have steadily dropped; this week’s total of 72 new cases represents a drop of nearly 60 percent from the peak.

“I think we can say our numbers are showing decreased transmission in the community,” said Briggs. “The bottom line is, our numbers are going down — and we need to keep it that way.”

Seven-day rolling averages have continued to decline since peaking near 25 cases in early July. Currently, the rolling average sits near 11 cases — the lowest reported total since mid-June. 

Briggs noted Olmsted County was approaching one threshold set by the World Health Organization and the state of Minnesota for ‘containing’ local transmission: a seven-day rolling average of 5 cases per 100,000 residents. Right now, the rolling average per 100,000 is just below 7 cases, based on the data available on the Olmsted County dashboard.

“When you talk about stabilization, we’ve been decreasing very consistently, to the point that we’re right on the threshold of that goal,” said Briggs. 

Briggs said local and state mask mandates ‘likely’ are contributing factors to the drop in cases; however, he added it is difficult to pin a decrease on one specific mandate or protocol.

Meaghan Sherden, lead epidemiologist for OCPH, seconded the feeling of encouragement held by Briggs, saying the consistent decline in case counts and rolling averages were a testament to the community’s commitment to following state and local guidelines.

She added, however, that the consistent improvements are not guaranteed to continue — the upcoming Labor Day weekend and impending start of school, among other events, could lead to spikes in cases if people stop taking the correct precautions.

“As a community, we’ve done some really great things — but we need to continue to do those things to blunt transmission,” said Sherden. “We’re not out of it yet. Just because we see decreased numbers doesn’t mean we can stop doing the things that are working.”

Briggs added that the situation is still incredibly fluid; a future outbreak could easily push rolling averages past the 15 mark once again. While ‘Covid fatigue’ sets in across the country — and inside the Public Health building, both Sherden and Briggs admit — the director says it remains important for Olmsted residents to do the little things: wear a mask, keep social distancing, and avoid large gatherings.

“As sick of this as we are, we need to stick to these few simple things that are really showing good, solid evidence of limiting transmission,” said Briggs. “We’re not ready, as a community, to go back to life as it was a year ago - because there’s still a lot of risk associated with that.”

Isaac Jahns is a Rochester native and a 2019 graduate of the Missouri School of Journalism. He reports on politics, business and music for Med City Beat.