It may have felt as if Rochester’s Covid-19 peak came and went in May — according to the numbers at the time, the science backed up the feeling — but a new report released today by Olmsted County Public Health paints a different picture, raising concerns that the worst of the pandemic may not be behind us.

Olmsted County once again broke its own high for new Covid-19 cases in a week, the figures show. A total of 129 new cases were recorded in the last week of data made available (6/22-28), up from 115 new cases recorded the previous week — a record-breaking statistic in itself at the time.

Testing also increased to its highest levels, although it does not serve as an excuse for the rise in cases; positive test rates in most recent days have exceeded the county’s overall average of 3.8 percent.

Olmsted County Public Health lead epidemiologist Meaghan Sherden said the numbers stem from a multitude of factors, most notably including lapses in social distancing and mask-wearing in public places like restaurants. On a statewide level, rising Covid-19 case numbers have led Gov. Tim Walz to weigh a possible re-closing of bars and restaurants statewide.

“We’re starting to see the implications of things opening up, restaurants opening up to 50 percent, lapses in social distancing and mask-wearing,” said Sherden. “All of that is tied into the spike we’re seeing right now.”

Echoing statements made by Minnesota Department of Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm, Sherden noted it generally takes two incubation periods (28 days) to fully understand the impacts of major events (i.e. Memorial Day) and policy changes (i.e. restaurant capacity to 50 percent) on the spread of Covid-19.

With protests, holidays, the beginning of summer, and loosened business restrictions all taking place at the same time, Sherden said conclusions on classifying this uptick as a new ‘wave’ of cases will have to wait for another week or so.

“When we close out next week, we’ll have three weeks of data to dive into and try to get a better understanding,” said Sherden. “Is this a two-week flash in the pan, like we had in mid-May, or is this the new normal that we have to deal with?”

The county’s weekly report cites a seven-day rolling average just under 20 active cases, a number that has steadily increased in recent days. Local elected officials, most notably Ward 2 Council Member Michael Wojcik, have pointed to the rolling average statistic as evidence of the need for a citywide mask mandate.

Olmsted County Public Health has said it encourages the use of face masks inside public spaces, but has stopped short of calling on local leaders to implement a mandate.

In our interview, Sherden joined a long list of experts — local and national — in recommending the use of face masks in public, citing it as one of many tools to be used in the fight against Covid-19’s spread.

“I know for myself, for example — when I go to the grocery store, it’s really hard to social distance if you and another person are in the same aisle, looking at the same things,” said Sherden. “We know Covid-19 is, mostly, in the air. It’s just another tool that we know helps to prevent the spread.”

The Rochester City Council is expected to consider a mask mandate at its next scheduled meeting on July 6.

Isaac Jahns is a Rochester native and a 2019 graduate of the Missouri School of Journalism. He reports on politics, business and music for Med City Beat.