Positivity rate nears 30 percent as omicron variant surges in Olmsted County

The current surge of Covid-19 infections is likely going to get worse before it gets better, according to a top local epidemiologist.

The wave of cases is attributed to the more contagious, yet less severe omicron variant. Last week, Olmsted County recorded 986 new cases of Covid-19, a 50 percent increase from the previous seven-day period.

Meaghan Sherden, lead epidemiologist for Olmsted County Public Health, said while health officials expected a post-holiday spike, they did not anticipate such a substantial uptick in new cases so quickly.

“For us to start to see it almost immediately gives us a better indication that [the omicron variant] is here and there’s a lot of Covid in our community right now,” Sherden said in an interview on Monday.

The percent positivity rate is now at a record-high 28 percent, per data from the CDC. Sherden noted there is also “unusually high” demand for testing, with local health providers processing nearly 7,000 tests in the past week.

Though the number of new cases has jumped significantly, hospitalizations remain relatively consistent with levels from the past two months. About 12 people are now being hospitalized daily in the county for Covid-19.

Still, compared to the holiday spike last year, Sherden noted that those who contract the virus today are less likely to be hospitalized or develop severe illness, particularly those who are vaccinated and boosted.

“We are going to see more hospitalizations just due to the sheer numbers, but when really break down that rate, we are not necessarily seeing the higher hospitalization rate we saw a year ago, or even a few months ago,” said Sherden, noting that last year about 7 percent of positive individuals required hospitalization, compared to 2 percent presently.

Based on the models, Sherden said she hopes to see a decline in Covid-19 activity in the next four to six weeks. In the meantime, Olmsted County Public Health will continue to monitor local transmission.

Echoing calls from the other public health officials, Sherden urged all eligible residents to get vaccinated and/or boosted for Covid-19.

“While it’s unfortunate that breakthrough infections are happening, we still see [vaccination] as a real protective factor for preventing hospitalization and serious illness,” said Sherden.

Sean Baker is a Rochester journalist and the founder of Med City Beat.